ShaunCarter.com

The recent upswing in the stock market averages will likely be short lived as all the economic data is digested and analyzed and everyone realizes that the recovery is anything but certain. Unemployment is still at a 26 year high and will likely keep increasing. Holiday sales will most assuredly disappoint later in the year. The stratospheric rally of the last six months is so overblown that I am recommending shorting financials and technology now and eventually expanding that to include other sectors. The only stocks that should be held in any portfolio right now are those of strong brands paying substantial and steady dividends such as Kraft (KFT), Phillip Morris (PM), Altria (MO), AT&T (ATT), Verizon (VZ), Heinz (HNZ), Con Ed (ED).

The short strategy I am employing is leveraged by trading the following ETFs: Financial Bear 3x (FAZ), UltraShort Financial ProShares (SKF), UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW). These ETFs use leverage to increase returns within the fund’s objectives, however that leverage works both ways and could result in greater than normal losses as well. The benefit to short and leveraged short ETFs is that you can short the market or a particular sector without having the potential for unlimited losses, quite similar to purchasing put options rather than naked shorting.

I am confident the recovery is not imminent as housing will continue to deteriorate as interest rates rise. The massive amount of debt being issued by the US government will increase treasury yields as investors demand greater returns to absorb the incredibly large volumes of new debt. Jobs will continue to be scarce and the auto industry will suffer an even bigger meltdown now that Cash For Clunkers has ended and car sales will plummet to historic lows as anyone who was going to buy a new car in the next 6-12 months has now done so.

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